Analysts predict structural overcapacity in the containership market due to incoming ultra-large vessel deliveries, impacting rates and deployments.
Incoming deliveries of ultra-large containerships will make structural overcapacity unavoidable in the coming years, reported London's S&P Global, citing Alphaliner data.
Global fleet growth is projected at 9.1 percent in 2027 and 12.7 percent in 2028, with deliveries of 3.5 million TEU and 5.2 million TEU respectively. Analysts stated that even optimistic carrier executives must fear oversupply.
The impact is most pronounced in ships above 18,000 TEU. Six vessels totaling 144,884 TEU are due in 2026, rising to 44 ships and 949,140 TEU in 2027, and 86 ships with 1.7 million TEU in 2028. This would lift the segment's fleet size to 7.3 million TEU by the end of 2028, marking a 31.1 percent annual increase.
Far East-Europe trades dominate deployment, with 188 ships totaling 4.1 million TEU. Weekly capacity on this route stood at 560,477 TEU in late June. Analysts warned that upgrading loops to 20,000-TEU ships could add 48,000 TEU per week, or 8.6 percent of capacity, risking rate-destructive oversupply.
Carriers are expected to seek new trades and terminals to absorb the tonnage. One example is TIL's purchase of a 49 percent stake in Vizhinjam, India, a deep draft port positioned for North and Southeast Asia services to the Gulf and Europe.
Analysts indicated that cascading will create further pockets of oversupply, with carriers under pressure to adjust deployments and invest in hubs capable of handling the surge of big ships.
