US retailers continued increase containerised imports ahead of tariff increases, but the National Retail Federation (NRF) noted that volumes were slowing at a major ports.
The NRF lowered its near-term forecast in based on Global Port Tracker data. Imports are forecast at 12.71 million TEU for the first half of 2025, up 3.6 per cent year on year.
'Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity,' said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold.
'Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs,' he said.
The Global Port Tracker lowered its forecast for December 2024's volume by 100,000 TEU at the major us ports projecting the final number will be at 2.14 million TEU.
While that would still be more than 14 per cent ahead of 2023, it is down nearly one per cent from November 2024. Further, the trade group lowered its January 2025 forecast by 50,000 TEU projecting the total at 2.11 million TEU.
While that is up nearly eight per cent over 2024, it would be another consecutive monthly decline. February 2025 is also projected to be down to 1.96 million TEU because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China.
The NRF notes that the total for 2024 however rivalled the peak of 25.8 million TEU in 2021. It expects the final tally for 2024 at 25.5 million TEU which would be nearly 15 per cent ahead of 2023.
Strong consumer demand and low unemployment in the final months of the Biden administration contributed to continued strong retail sales and demand.
Port cargo 'could be badly hit' if tariffs on overseas Asian and European nations increase prices and prompt consumers to buy less, said Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates.
He noted that Trump's now delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would initially have minimal impact at ports because most imports from either country move by truck, rail or pipeline.
In the long term, tariffs on goods that receive final manufacturing in Canada or Mexico but originate elsewhere could prompt an increase in direct maritime imports to the US, said Mr Hackett.
The NRF is forecasting that container imports will begin to show month-over-month growth (as well as year on year) in the spring as retailers stock up for summer sales.
March is forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 11.1 per cent year on year; April at 2.18 million TEU, up 8.2 per cent; and May at 2.19 million TEU, up 5.4 per cent. The current forecast however shows the increases could be short-lived with June container imports forecast at 2.13 million TEU, down 0.6 per cent.
SeaNews Turkey
The NRF lowered its near-term forecast in based on Global Port Tracker data. Imports are forecast at 12.71 million TEU for the first half of 2025, up 3.6 per cent year on year.
'Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity,' said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold.
'Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs,' he said.
The Global Port Tracker lowered its forecast for December 2024's volume by 100,000 TEU at the major us ports projecting the final number will be at 2.14 million TEU.
While that would still be more than 14 per cent ahead of 2023, it is down nearly one per cent from November 2024. Further, the trade group lowered its January 2025 forecast by 50,000 TEU projecting the total at 2.11 million TEU.
While that is up nearly eight per cent over 2024, it would be another consecutive monthly decline. February 2025 is also projected to be down to 1.96 million TEU because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China.
The NRF notes that the total for 2024 however rivalled the peak of 25.8 million TEU in 2021. It expects the final tally for 2024 at 25.5 million TEU which would be nearly 15 per cent ahead of 2023.
Strong consumer demand and low unemployment in the final months of the Biden administration contributed to continued strong retail sales and demand.
Port cargo 'could be badly hit' if tariffs on overseas Asian and European nations increase prices and prompt consumers to buy less, said Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates.
He noted that Trump's now delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would initially have minimal impact at ports because most imports from either country move by truck, rail or pipeline.
In the long term, tariffs on goods that receive final manufacturing in Canada or Mexico but originate elsewhere could prompt an increase in direct maritime imports to the US, said Mr Hackett.
The NRF is forecasting that container imports will begin to show month-over-month growth (as well as year on year) in the spring as retailers stock up for summer sales.
March is forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 11.1 per cent year on year; April at 2.18 million TEU, up 8.2 per cent; and May at 2.19 million TEU, up 5.4 per cent. The current forecast however shows the increases could be short-lived with June container imports forecast at 2.13 million TEU, down 0.6 per cent.
SeaNews Turkey
