TWO articles take differing views of the Phase One US-China Trade Deal with the conservative Federalist journal praising it while the more leftist World Politics Review is critical.
Writing in New York's World Politics Review, Kimberly Ann Elliott, visiting scholar at the George Washington University, said: 'In the Phase One deal Trump continues making minor tweaks to existing agreements and concluding new mini-trade deals that leave the United States worse off than before, both politically and economically.'
Writing in the Federalist, Helen Raleigh, a fellow at the Centennial Institute in Colorado, said: 'Besides increasing exports and strengthening intellectual property rights, this trade agreement includes making China lift its bans on genetically modified US farm products, and opens China's financial sector to US banks, insurance companies, and credit-rating agencies.'
In general Ms Elliot's critique focuses on what the initial trade deal doesn't have in terms of agricultural purchases, hardly mentioning other sectors, while Ms Raleigh details improvements over a range of industries.
Said Ms Elliot: 'Average US soybean exports for the five years prior to the trade war were US$13 billion, accounting for more than half of total US agricultural exports to China in that period.
'Yet global soybean prices have barely budged since the phase-one deal was signed on January 15. This could be because the major source of demand for soybeans in China is pork production, and pig herds in China have been decimated by the African swine fever epidemic,' Ms Elliot said.
'What happened to the $40 billion to $50 billion in additional sales that Trump promised American farmers? Can Beijing really deliver on its commitment to increase imports of goods and services from the United States by $200 billion over the next two years?
'Hitting all of its stated targets would require China to almost double its imports of products covered in the deal by the end of 2021. Moreover, because the baseline level from which the increases will be measured is 2017, and because the trade war has caused Chinese imports to drop sharply in the intervening years,' she said.
Said Ms Raleigh: 'China pledges to purchase way more than soybeans. China has committed to increase imports of US goods and services by no less than $200 billion over the course of the next two years.
'According to the trade agreement, the purchase increase will come from four industries: $77.7 billion worth of manufactured goods, $52.4 billion worth of energy, $32 billion in agriculture, and $37.2 billion in services. Moreover, the agreement expects such increases to 'continue in calendar years 2022 through 2025,' Ms Raleigh said.
'Keep in mind that before the US-China trade war started, US exports to China were only about $130 billion in 2017. Expansion of US exports to China, as the trade deal mandates, is unprecedented and will be a huge boost to the US economy for several years to come.
'If China fails to deliver, the agreement says the United States will unilaterally reimpose tariffs on Chinese goods. Economists and China's other trading partners, such as countries in the European Union, have already raised questions about whether China will have to reduce purchases from all other trading partners in order to fulfil their new trade obligations to the United States,' she said.
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Writing in New York's World Politics Review, Kimberly Ann Elliott, visiting scholar at the George Washington University, said: 'In the Phase One deal Trump continues making minor tweaks to existing agreements and concluding new mini-trade deals that leave the United States worse off than before, both politically and economically.'
Writing in the Federalist, Helen Raleigh, a fellow at the Centennial Institute in Colorado, said: 'Besides increasing exports and strengthening intellectual property rights, this trade agreement includes making China lift its bans on genetically modified US farm products, and opens China's financial sector to US banks, insurance companies, and credit-rating agencies.'
In general Ms Elliot's critique focuses on what the initial trade deal doesn't have in terms of agricultural purchases, hardly mentioning other sectors, while Ms Raleigh details improvements over a range of industries.
Said Ms Elliot: 'Average US soybean exports for the five years prior to the trade war were US$13 billion, accounting for more than half of total US agricultural exports to China in that period.
'Yet global soybean prices have barely budged since the phase-one deal was signed on January 15. This could be because the major source of demand for soybeans in China is pork production, and pig herds in China have been decimated by the African swine fever epidemic,' Ms Elliot said.
'What happened to the $40 billion to $50 billion in additional sales that Trump promised American farmers? Can Beijing really deliver on its commitment to increase imports of goods and services from the United States by $200 billion over the next two years?
'Hitting all of its stated targets would require China to almost double its imports of products covered in the deal by the end of 2021. Moreover, because the baseline level from which the increases will be measured is 2017, and because the trade war has caused Chinese imports to drop sharply in the intervening years,' she said.
Said Ms Raleigh: 'China pledges to purchase way more than soybeans. China has committed to increase imports of US goods and services by no less than $200 billion over the course of the next two years.
'According to the trade agreement, the purchase increase will come from four industries: $77.7 billion worth of manufactured goods, $52.4 billion worth of energy, $32 billion in agriculture, and $37.2 billion in services. Moreover, the agreement expects such increases to 'continue in calendar years 2022 through 2025,' Ms Raleigh said.
'Keep in mind that before the US-China trade war started, US exports to China were only about $130 billion in 2017. Expansion of US exports to China, as the trade deal mandates, is unprecedented and will be a huge boost to the US economy for several years to come.
'If China fails to deliver, the agreement says the United States will unilaterally reimpose tariffs on Chinese goods. Economists and China's other trading partners, such as countries in the European Union, have already raised questions about whether China will have to reduce purchases from all other trading partners in order to fulfil their new trade obligations to the United States,' she said.
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