FOLLOWING President Trump's 90-day tariff reprieve starting April 2, transpacific shippers are rushing to move delayed cargo, creating a potential surge in demand of up to 48 per cent, according to Sea-Intelligence.
An estimated 180,000-540,000 TEU of goods in China - much of it already produced and stored - could now enter the trade lane, triggering an early and intense peak season.
Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence, said: 'In the past four weeks, shipping lines have been trying to reduce transpacific capacity, due to a drop-off in bookings as a direct consequence of the tariffs. Now, with this latest development, the lines need to ramp capacity up quickly, to accommodate for an expected surge in bookings, because getting cargo into the US before the new August 14 cut-off, requires peak season cargo to be shipped no later than by mid-July.'
While some carriers are beginning to restore capacity, supply remains constrained, particularly on Asia-US west coast routes.
Mr Murphy said that on the transpacific trade to the North America West Coast, there is not yet a meaningful injection of new capacity in the immediate future.
'This development, or lack thereof, to the West Coast becomes even more noteworthy in the face of the development to the East Coast, where it does appear that there is already some attempt to increase capacity, relative to a week ago.'
Freight rates are expected to spike in the coming weeks as shippers rush to beat the next tariff deadline, potentially leading to more capacity shifts and fewer blank sailings in other Asia trades.
SeaNews Turkey
An estimated 180,000-540,000 TEU of goods in China - much of it already produced and stored - could now enter the trade lane, triggering an early and intense peak season.
Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence, said: 'In the past four weeks, shipping lines have been trying to reduce transpacific capacity, due to a drop-off in bookings as a direct consequence of the tariffs. Now, with this latest development, the lines need to ramp capacity up quickly, to accommodate for an expected surge in bookings, because getting cargo into the US before the new August 14 cut-off, requires peak season cargo to be shipped no later than by mid-July.'
While some carriers are beginning to restore capacity, supply remains constrained, particularly on Asia-US west coast routes.
Mr Murphy said that on the transpacific trade to the North America West Coast, there is not yet a meaningful injection of new capacity in the immediate future.
'This development, or lack thereof, to the West Coast becomes even more noteworthy in the face of the development to the East Coast, where it does appear that there is already some attempt to increase capacity, relative to a week ago.'
Freight rates are expected to spike in the coming weeks as shippers rush to beat the next tariff deadline, potentially leading to more capacity shifts and fewer blank sailings in other Asia trades.
SeaNews Turkey
