Singapore's DBS Bank economist sees China's GDP growing 9pc in 2013
AN economist with DBS Bank (previously known as the Development Bank of Singapore) says China's trade with Africa and Latin America will significantly boost China's economy and forecasts a nine per cent GDP growth this year.
DBS Bank economist Chris Leung was making his remarks in light of Chinese president Xi Jinpin's endorsement of 16 trade deals during his recent visit to Africa.
The DBS economist also predicted that the renminbi will appreciate three per cent this year, reports the Taiwanese financial news website cnyes.com.
The bank recently held a conference on China's economic outlook, largely focused on the strength of renminbi. Mr Leung said on the conference that China has started to develop closer trade ties with ASEAN, African and Latin American countries in order to reduce negative impact from the downturn in its traditional trading partners of Europe and US.
In 2011, China's exports to Africa and Latin America accounted for 11 per cent of its export total. The percentage was only five per cent 10 years ago, now it is even more than ASEAN's nine per cent.
DBS economist also pointed out that China needs to think of ways to shift its economy from export-based to a consumer-based one with higher added value.
Commenting on China's urbanisation, Mr Leung said that it would facilitate liberalisation of interest rates. He said the central government used to be the decision maker on China's interest rate and the one that could secure loans, but urbanisation will make the interest rate more market-subjected.
But Mr Leung noted that an ageing population might undermine China's urbanisation and economic growth given the one-child policy by 2015, when China becomes an ageing society. He added that China should adjust its population policy.
China's current urbanisation rate is about 52 per cent and will rise to 60 per cent in 10 years. By that time, China's urban residents will equal the population of Indonesia. A growing population will also generate a larger labour force, which will benefit economic development.
Mr Leung also forecast that China's inflation this year will be even higher than in 2012 at four per cent. A fall in commodity price is hard to be seen in the short term with water, electricity and real estate price surging.
AN economist with DBS Bank (previously known as the Development Bank of Singapore) says China's trade with Africa and Latin America will significantly boost China's economy and forecasts a nine per cent GDP growth this year.
DBS Bank economist Chris Leung was making his remarks in light of Chinese president Xi Jinpin's endorsement of 16 trade deals during his recent visit to Africa.
The DBS economist also predicted that the renminbi will appreciate three per cent this year, reports the Taiwanese financial news website cnyes.com.
The bank recently held a conference on China's economic outlook, largely focused on the strength of renminbi. Mr Leung said on the conference that China has started to develop closer trade ties with ASEAN, African and Latin American countries in order to reduce negative impact from the downturn in its traditional trading partners of Europe and US.
In 2011, China's exports to Africa and Latin America accounted for 11 per cent of its export total. The percentage was only five per cent 10 years ago, now it is even more than ASEAN's nine per cent.
DBS economist also pointed out that China needs to think of ways to shift its economy from export-based to a consumer-based one with higher added value.
Commenting on China's urbanisation, Mr Leung said that it would facilitate liberalisation of interest rates. He said the central government used to be the decision maker on China's interest rate and the one that could secure loans, but urbanisation will make the interest rate more market-subjected.
But Mr Leung noted that an ageing population might undermine China's urbanisation and economic growth given the one-child policy by 2015, when China becomes an ageing society. He added that China should adjust its population policy.
China's current urbanisation rate is about 52 per cent and will rise to 60 per cent in 10 years. By that time, China's urban residents will equal the population of Indonesia. A growing population will also generate a larger labour force, which will benefit economic development.
Mr Leung also forecast that China's inflation this year will be even higher than in 2012 at four per cent. A fall in commodity price is hard to be seen in the short term with water, electricity and real estate price surging.