Growth in US container imports is expected to drop to 2.8 per cent next
year, down from an earlier forecast of 4.7 per cent, according to cargo
data specialist Piers.
Piers economist Mario Moreno said his lowered expectations came with the slowness of US economic recovery. While he expected the economy to grow, it would do so "at a stubbornly slow pace of 1.3 per cent in 2012".
The US economy showed greater activity in the third quarter of 2011 than many economists predicted after a sharp slowdown in the first half.
High oil prices, pending foreclosures, a "high probability" that payroll tax cuts will not be renewed, slow job creation and the "seasonality" of retail spikes will "challenge the sustainability of this growth", Mr Moreno said.
Piers expects imports to stay flat in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period in 2010, and to rise by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.
Expectations are higher for US exports. Increased containerisation of grain and soya beans to China helped total US unitised exports rise 6.7 per cent to 2.9 million TEU in the third quarter, the eighth quarterly rise.
China, as the top market for US exports, followed its second quarter increase of six per cent with a 13 per cent increase in the third quarter to 652,000 TEU.
Strong demand for wastepaper and scrap metal contributed to the third-quarter rise in total container volumes, a 8.3 per cent increase for the first nine months of 2011 year on year.
Piers economist Mario Moreno said his lowered expectations came with the slowness of US economic recovery. While he expected the economy to grow, it would do so "at a stubbornly slow pace of 1.3 per cent in 2012".
The US economy showed greater activity in the third quarter of 2011 than many economists predicted after a sharp slowdown in the first half.
High oil prices, pending foreclosures, a "high probability" that payroll tax cuts will not be renewed, slow job creation and the "seasonality" of retail spikes will "challenge the sustainability of this growth", Mr Moreno said.
Piers expects imports to stay flat in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period in 2010, and to rise by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.
Expectations are higher for US exports. Increased containerisation of grain and soya beans to China helped total US unitised exports rise 6.7 per cent to 2.9 million TEU in the third quarter, the eighth quarterly rise.
China, as the top market for US exports, followed its second quarter increase of six per cent with a 13 per cent increase in the third quarter to 652,000 TEU.
Strong demand for wastepaper and scrap metal contributed to the third-quarter rise in total container volumes, a 8.3 per cent increase for the first nine months of 2011 year on year.