The global container shipping market will be affected by overcapacity for at least the next 12 months, according to one analyst.
AXS Alphaliner has warned that the global containership fleet will grow by an average annual rate of 8.7% over the next two years.
It estimated 1.26 million teu would be added to the fleet in 2011 and 1.33 million teu in 2012.
However, demand has already started to slow and the trend is expected to continue over the next year, said Alphaliner.
“Overcapacity in the containership market is expected to persist for at least one more year, with demand expected to slow significantly in 2011 to below 8% from the estimated 13.6% growth in 2010.
“Volume growth at the main container ports in Asia slowed in the fourth quarter of last year, with the slower growth rate expected to continue into 2011.
“Attention must now be shifted to utilisation levels in the next two months, as these will determine the direction of freight rates after the new year celebrations in the Far East next month.”
Alphaliner said throughput at the world’s five busiest container ports grew by an average of 18% in the first three quarters of 2010, but slowed to 8% in Q4.
As a result, Alphaliner estimated vessel utilisation levels on the Far East-US and Far East-Europe routes fell to just 80% in December, the lowest level recorded since May 2009.
There has been a recent increase in vessel utilisation, with the Shanghai Shipping Exchange reporting that vessels on east-west services were sailing around 90% full.
But this is likely to be a blip, caused by Chinese manufacturers rushing to get goods out of the country before factories closed for two weeks for the new year celebrations.
Last year, a total of 1.2 million teu was added to the fleet last year, but a large part of this new capacity was absorbed by increased demand caused by the rapid economic recovery.
AXS Alphaliner has warned that the global containership fleet will grow by an average annual rate of 8.7% over the next two years.
It estimated 1.26 million teu would be added to the fleet in 2011 and 1.33 million teu in 2012.
However, demand has already started to slow and the trend is expected to continue over the next year, said Alphaliner.
“Overcapacity in the containership market is expected to persist for at least one more year, with demand expected to slow significantly in 2011 to below 8% from the estimated 13.6% growth in 2010.
“Volume growth at the main container ports in Asia slowed in the fourth quarter of last year, with the slower growth rate expected to continue into 2011.
“Attention must now be shifted to utilisation levels in the next two months, as these will determine the direction of freight rates after the new year celebrations in the Far East next month.”
Alphaliner said throughput at the world’s five busiest container ports grew by an average of 18% in the first three quarters of 2010, but slowed to 8% in Q4.
As a result, Alphaliner estimated vessel utilisation levels on the Far East-US and Far East-Europe routes fell to just 80% in December, the lowest level recorded since May 2009.
There has been a recent increase in vessel utilisation, with the Shanghai Shipping Exchange reporting that vessels on east-west services were sailing around 90% full.
But this is likely to be a blip, caused by Chinese manufacturers rushing to get goods out of the country before factories closed for two weeks for the new year celebrations.
Last year, a total of 1.2 million teu was added to the fleet last year, but a large part of this new capacity was absorbed by increased demand caused by the rapid economic recovery.