ANALYSTS are expressing optimism that with the Mueller investigation 'out of the way,' there is greater incentive for the US and China to reach a trade deal.
'The Mueller report isn't a game changer but it should encourage China to keep up recent momentum in trying to finalise a deal with Trump,' consultants Eurasia Group Asia director Michael Hirson told CNBC News.
The trade talks have dragged on amid a delay in arranging a meeting between the US and China leaders, originally scheduled to take place before the end of March that now my be postponed until May or June.
Over the weekend, US Attorney General William Barr said a two-year investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller had no case against President Donald Trump.
'China will still have redlines, and a deal is by no means guaranteed, but the fact that an impeachment looks less likely will be meaningful for Beijing's calculus,' Mr Hirson said. 'One question now is whether Trump himself decides that he now has more leverage over Beijing and drives a harder line in negotiations.'
'It is notable that the Mueller report hasn't really generated a lot of coverage in the Chinese press,' The Economist Intelligence Unit Asia regional director Duncan Innes-Ker said in a phone interview Monday. 'Certainly, in comparison with the trade talks, (the report) hasn't generated the same sort of buzz on social media.'
'The fact there wasn't any smoking gun, indictment of Trump or Trump family members, puts the administration in a better position to fight for the 2020 election - and that has implications for the trade talks,' he said, noting the Chinese will have to give more weight to the idea that Mr Trump may serve another term in office.
The Mueller report has more implications for domestic US politics than the geopolitical and economic issues that Washington and Beijing are dealing with.
'If the two sides can't get past the key hurdles and reach a conclusion grand enough to justify a Trump-Xi meeting before the June G20 meeting in Tokyo, it may be hard to regain momentum,' Eurasia Group US analyst Jeffrey Wright said.
Former director-general of the World Trade Organization Pascal Lamy expects a US-China trade deal will likely include two parts: 'managed barter' of goods from each country, and a focus on some structural issues.
Speaking at an event organised by the think tank Centre for China and Globalisation, Mr Lamy also encouraged the Chinese negotiators to show greater readiness to move forwards on reducing state control and addressing structural problems.
'I would do that because this is good for China,' he said. 'Thirty per cent of China under state command is a drag on state growth, a drag on productivity.'
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to travel to Beijing for trade talks. The Chinese delegation under Vice Premier Liu He is expected to lead a team to the US the following week.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed late last year to a temporary trade truce and held off additional tariff increases. Mr Trump later said both sides have made 'significant progress' and that a hike in duties planned for March 2 would be delayed.
'Trump's insistence that any deal be cemented in person with Xi is creating additional complexity,' warned Mr Wright.
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'The Mueller report isn't a game changer but it should encourage China to keep up recent momentum in trying to finalise a deal with Trump,' consultants Eurasia Group Asia director Michael Hirson told CNBC News.
The trade talks have dragged on amid a delay in arranging a meeting between the US and China leaders, originally scheduled to take place before the end of March that now my be postponed until May or June.
Over the weekend, US Attorney General William Barr said a two-year investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller had no case against President Donald Trump.
'China will still have redlines, and a deal is by no means guaranteed, but the fact that an impeachment looks less likely will be meaningful for Beijing's calculus,' Mr Hirson said. 'One question now is whether Trump himself decides that he now has more leverage over Beijing and drives a harder line in negotiations.'
'It is notable that the Mueller report hasn't really generated a lot of coverage in the Chinese press,' The Economist Intelligence Unit Asia regional director Duncan Innes-Ker said in a phone interview Monday. 'Certainly, in comparison with the trade talks, (the report) hasn't generated the same sort of buzz on social media.'
'The fact there wasn't any smoking gun, indictment of Trump or Trump family members, puts the administration in a better position to fight for the 2020 election - and that has implications for the trade talks,' he said, noting the Chinese will have to give more weight to the idea that Mr Trump may serve another term in office.
The Mueller report has more implications for domestic US politics than the geopolitical and economic issues that Washington and Beijing are dealing with.
'If the two sides can't get past the key hurdles and reach a conclusion grand enough to justify a Trump-Xi meeting before the June G20 meeting in Tokyo, it may be hard to regain momentum,' Eurasia Group US analyst Jeffrey Wright said.
Former director-general of the World Trade Organization Pascal Lamy expects a US-China trade deal will likely include two parts: 'managed barter' of goods from each country, and a focus on some structural issues.
Speaking at an event organised by the think tank Centre for China and Globalisation, Mr Lamy also encouraged the Chinese negotiators to show greater readiness to move forwards on reducing state control and addressing structural problems.
'I would do that because this is good for China,' he said. 'Thirty per cent of China under state command is a drag on state growth, a drag on productivity.'
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to travel to Beijing for trade talks. The Chinese delegation under Vice Premier Liu He is expected to lead a team to the US the following week.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed late last year to a temporary trade truce and held off additional tariff increases. Mr Trump later said both sides have made 'significant progress' and that a hike in duties planned for March 2 would be delayed.
'Trump's insistence that any deal be cemented in person with Xi is creating additional complexity,' warned Mr Wright.
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