DELEGATES who attended the Intermodal show in Rotterdam were told that the creation of sulphur emission control areas (ECA) in January could redesign of Asia-Europe supply chains.
MDS Transmodal managing director Mike Garratt said the new regulations are likely to lead to significantly higher shipping costs as shown recently by carriers introducing low sulphur surcharges.
Ships operating here will be forced to burn fuel with a 0.1 per cent or less sulphur content when steaming in the Channel and North and Baltic seas, thus having to effectively switch from the normal heavy fuel oil (HFO) to distillate marine gas oil (MGO).
Several shipping lines have already announced surcharges, with sliding scales depending on how far into a area the shipper's cargo is moving.
Maersk has set it at US$50-150 per TEU, MSC at $15-130 per TEU, CMA CGM at $40-230 and north European feeder and shortsea operator Unifeeder, which almost exclusively operates within the area, at $88 per TEU.
However, modelling undertaken by Mr Garratts' company has questioned those levels, reports London's Loadstar
Assuming that fuel prices remain at today's levels, and that MGO continues to be 50 per cent more expensive than HFO, Mr Garratt has calculated that the bunker cost per TEU on a transatlantic service, where 31 per cent of the distance would be within the area, would increase from $208 to $240.
On a transpacific service with seven per cent of the distance within the area, it would increase from $448 to $462; and on an Asia-Europe service with seven per cent, it would rise from $452 to $468.
"The service that is going to see the greatest increase in costs due to the new regulations is a transatlantic operation from Finland to the US," he said.
But he also questioned whether as a result of the higher costs, there would be a shift in cargo away from North Europe.
"The UK for example, has some major ports - Liverpool and Bristol which are outside the area - and there's no reason why it couldn't be served through them.
"In fact, while the leading four European ports are all inside the zone, 53 per cent of the deepsea box traffic generated in Europe destined or from countries within the areas, a proportion that rises to 70 per cent when you take into account non-EU countries.
"It may be that the lines increasingly realise that it makes sense to serve Europe through Mediterranean ports - indeed, shipping lines are already increasing their presence there, with the 2M alliance planning 10 Asia-Med services compared with 12 Asia-North Europe services," said Mr Garratt.
He suggested that French ports such as Marseilles and Nantes could see an increase in volumes if the intermodal services out of them provided strong enough links to the hinterland, while a call at a north-west port outside the emissions control areas could result in a possible $64 saving per loaded container.
WORLD SHIPPING
18 November 2014 - 21:40
Low-sulphur fuel laws may divert cargo away from northern Europe
DELEGATES who attended the Intermodal show in Rotterdam were told that the creation of sulphur emission control areas (ECA) in January could redesign of Asia-Europe supply chains.
WORLD SHIPPING
18 November 2014 - 21:40
Low-sulphur fuel laws may divert cargo away from northern Europe
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