Shippers are expected to prioritize reliability over rates this year as congestion and infrastructure limits weigh on global supply chains, reports London's S&P Global.

Analysts indicate that freight rates may moderate by a few hundred dollars per container; however, systemic threats to service will compel shippers to focus on certainty. Drewry's Chantal McRoberts stated during a Journal of Commerce webinar that reliability is now the top concern for beneficial cargo owners.

Ocean reliability from Asia to the US West Coast has fluctuated between 42 and 48 percent since September, according to eeSea. Chronic congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, where ships wait two to three days outside the port, highlights the problem.

China accounted for 36 percent of US imports in TEU last year, down from 40 percent in 2024. The expansion of port capacity has slowed even as exports surged, leaving infrastructure unable to keep pace. Advisory founder Nils Roche remarked that China is 'lacking port capacity' despite its earlier investments.

China's exports grew robustly, with its trade surplus surpassing US$1 trillion in November. Its share of global exports increased from 33 to 37 percent between 2023 and 2025. S&P Global Market Intelligence raised GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027, citing stronger export prospects.

Larger ships, ranging from 18,000 to 24,000 TEUs, are adding pressure, with port performance data indicating turnaround times well below pre-pandemic levels. Roche warned that even if Red Sea transits resume, bottlenecks will shift from ocean to land due to limited port capacity.

He added that shipping does not fully adhere to supply and demand laws, as infrastructure constraints limit the impact of new vessel supply. Analysts suggest that shippers must temper expectations and plan around systemic risks rather than short-term rate changes.

Certainty

Reliability Takes Precedence Over Rates in Shipping Industry