Global Port Tracker's mood changes from negative to positive
US IMPORTS surged to unexpected levels and may have hit a new record as the US economy continues to reopen and retailers stock up for the holiday season, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates
US IMPORTS surged to unexpected levels and may have hit a new record as the US economy continues to reopen and retailers stock up for the holiday season, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
This was a sharp change in tone from the port tracker report of less than two week ago that said that imports were expected to see their lowest total in four years because of the impact of the Covid crisis on the economy.
While far more optimistic, NRF vice president Jonathan Gold warned: 'It's important to be careful how much to read into these numbers after all we've seen this year, but retailers are importing far more merchandise for the holidays than we expected.
'Some of these imports are helping replenish inventories that started to run low after consumers unleashed pent-up demand when stores reopened. But this is the clearest sign yet that we could be in for a much happier holiday season than many had thought,' Mr Gold.
'The economy has come into sharp focus, and for good cause,' said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett.
'The previous yo-yo pattern of import levels reached a peak in July that appears to have extended into August. Nonetheless, data from around the globe is a mix, with a weak recovery as Europe struggles with rising Covid-19 numbers, but China's exports remain solid. Will this last? A lot of uncertainty is in play.'
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.92 million TEU in July, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 2.3 per cent year on year but up 19.3 per cent from June and significantly higher than the 1.76 million TEU forecast a month ago. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.
August was estimated at 2.06 million TEU, a six per cent year-on-year increase. Actual August numbers won't be known until next month, but that would be an all-time high, beating the previous record of 2.04 million TEU set in October 2018.
September is forecast at 1.89 million TEU, up 1.1 per cent year over year; October at 1.71 million TEU, down 9.2 per cent; November at 1.58 million TEU, down 6.8 per cent, and December at 1.53 million TEU, down 11 per cent.
Those numbers would bring 2020 to a total of 20.1 million TEU, a drop of 6.7 per cent from last year, still the lowest annual total since 19.1 million TEU in 2016. The first half of 2020 totalled 9.5 million TEU, down 10.6 per cent from last year.
The forecast numbers call for 7.58 million TEU during the July-October peak season when retailers rush to bring in merchandise for the winter holidays, making 2020 the third-busiest peak season on record following 7.7 million TEU in 2018 and 7.66 million TEU last year.
January 2021 is forecast at 1.6 million TEU, down 12 per cent from January 2020.