Covid-19 could curtail express market growth this year to 4.5pc
THE global express and parcels market could contract by as much as 4
THE global express and parcels market could contract by as much as 4.4 per cent in 2020 if the economy fails to recover towards the end of the year.
However, according to Transport Intelligence (Ti) the surge in e-commerce growth during lockdowns, and a permanent switch in consumer behaviour combined with an economic recovery in H2 could lead to growth of up to 4.5 per cent.
Ti's scenario-based projections for express market growth in 2020 show, with suppression of the pandemic and recovery in H2, potential for growth of up to 6.3 per cent in domestic express and 3.3 per cent in the international express market.
There are gloomier prospects under a 'severe impact' scenario, however. A prolonged pandemic could see as much as 2.5 per cent wiped from the domestic market with a contraction of -13.3 per cent in international express.
Andy Ralls, quantitative analyst at Ti, commented: 'The performance of the express market hangs in the balance. It cannot escape the weak global economic environment caused by the Covid-19 pandemic but at the same time restrictions on daily life have led to a surge in e-commerce growth. The change in consumer behaviour, if permanent, could lead to much higher express growth rates in future, but in 2020 the economic environment will force growth down, potentially into negative territory.'