Atlas Air Worldwide has cautioned that limited freighter additions and ageing aircraft retirements may restrict air cargo growth over the next five years, reports London's Air Cargo News.
Speaking at the Caspian Air Cargo Summit, Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at atlas Air, said demand is expected to rise by four per cent annually through 2030, driven by e-commerce growth of 10 per cent per year, international express at three per cent and general cargo at 2.7 per cent.
Mr Drew noted that supply chains are adapting to geopolitical shifts, including the end of the US de minimis exemption. He said Shein and Temu have adjusted their strategies, with Shein targeting older US consumers and Temu expanding into new markets.
Production is shifting to Southeast Asia in response to US tariffs, while China is focusing on Europe, Mexico and South America. However, supply-side constraints remain a concern.
Mr Drew said the global widebody freighter fleet is projected to grow at less than one per cent annually, with only 30 aircraft added each year on average and 130 retirements expected by 2030, mainly MD-11Fs. The fleet is forecast to rise from 655 to 685 aircraft, a 4.4 per cent increase.
Aircraft production is also facing delays due to a record backlog of 17,000 units. While IAI's Boeing 777 conversion programme has been approved, feedstock availability is limited due to the model's popularity in passenger service.
Bellyhold capacity is constrained as aircraft like the A321X, used on longer routes, offer limited cargo space. Mr Drew said the imbalance between supply and demand could become a major growth constraint for the industry.
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Speaking at the Caspian Air Cargo Summit, Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at atlas Air, said demand is expected to rise by four per cent annually through 2030, driven by e-commerce growth of 10 per cent per year, international express at three per cent and general cargo at 2.7 per cent.
Mr Drew noted that supply chains are adapting to geopolitical shifts, including the end of the US de minimis exemption. He said Shein and Temu have adjusted their strategies, with Shein targeting older US consumers and Temu expanding into new markets.
Production is shifting to Southeast Asia in response to US tariffs, while China is focusing on Europe, Mexico and South America. However, supply-side constraints remain a concern.
Mr Drew said the global widebody freighter fleet is projected to grow at less than one per cent annually, with only 30 aircraft added each year on average and 130 retirements expected by 2030, mainly MD-11Fs. The fleet is forecast to rise from 655 to 685 aircraft, a 4.4 per cent increase.
Aircraft production is also facing delays due to a record backlog of 17,000 units. While IAI's Boeing 777 conversion programme has been approved, feedstock availability is limited due to the model's popularity in passenger service.
Bellyhold capacity is constrained as aircraft like the A321X, used on longer routes, offer limited cargo space. Mr Drew said the imbalance between supply and demand could become a major growth constraint for the industry.
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