THE share of volume on the Asia-Europe trade, of the Asia-Mideast/India subcontinent segment, has risen from 26 per cent in 2002 to 36 per cent in 2010 and now stands to rise to 42 per cent by 2018 if trends continue, according to a Seabury Group study.
"The share of Asia to Middle East and Indian subcontinent has increased sharply at the expense of Asia-Europe, and this will only increase in the coming years," said Seabury maritime chief Michel Looten.
The Dutch analysis of the sub-trades on the westbound Asia-Europe corridor shows that trade from Asia to the Middle East and Indian subcontinent could even overtake Asia-Europe volumes within a decade, reports Seatrade Global of Colchester, England.
In 2014, Asia-Europe volumes stood at around 20 million TEU, with Asia-Europe's share at 51 per cent, Asia-Mideast/India at 39 per cent and Asia-Mideast/India at 10 per cent, Mr Looten said.
But he also said the Mideast's Gulf Cooperation Council countries' low population density compared to the Indian subcontinent means that it does not enjoy the lion's share of the business.
In 2013, the GCC took 44 per cent of the 7.7 million TEU of the total on the Asia-Mideast/India route with the UAE accounting for 16 per cent, Saudi Arabia 13 per cent and the rest of the GCC 15 per cent, while India took 17 per cent with Pakistan and Bangladesh taking 18 per cent and the Levant, 22 per cent.
Commenting on the last 15 years, Mr Looten said the destination split had been constant, but the importance of UAE had fallen while India's share had gone up.
Import of household goods increased sharply in the period 2012-14, mainly into Iran and UAE, whereas export growth mainly came from the ISC.
Imports of household goods to the Gulf from Asia shot up 134 per cent in the two-year period, or by 89,000 TEU per year, while primary plastics and forestry products both saw double-digit growth.
Mr Looten expects that imports lost by Iran since 2012 due to economic sanctions will be more than redressed, particularly in consumer goods and automotive, if the measures are lifted in the near future.
"China will be the big winner if sanctions to Iran are eased or lifted, further supporting the trend of Mideast and Indian subcontinent pivoting towards Asia-Pacific," he said.
"Jebel Ali is going to be the hub in this region. Sohar might save one or two days sailing time. In coming years Iran will definitely be a market that will continue to grow."
WORLD SHIPPING
23 February 2015 - 21:21
Asia-Mideast/India trade to surpass Asia-Europe volume if trends hold
THE share of volume on the Asia-Europe trade, of the Asia-Mideast/India subcontinent segment, has risen from 26 per cent in 2002 to 36 per cent in 2010 and now stands to rise to 42 per cent by 2018 if trends continue, according to a Seabury Group study.
WORLD SHIPPING
23 February 2015 - 21:21
Asia-Mideast/India trade to surpass Asia-Europe volume if trends hold
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