"We won't see final sales numbers for a few more days, but import volume suggests that retailers had a strong holiday season," NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "Retailers don't import merchandise unless they think they can sell it.
In November, ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.64 million TEU, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 1.6 per cent from October since most imported holiday merchandise had already arrived but up 11.2 per cent from November 2015. Global Port Tracker had previously predicted a year-over-year increase of 3.6 per cent.
December was estimated at 1.54 million TEU, up 7 per cent year-over-year rather than the 3.2 per cent that had been expected.
The report noted that cargo volume does not correlate directly to sales because only the number of containers is counted, not the value of the cargo inside, but nonetheless provides a barometer of retailers' expectations.
NRF's annual forecast called for $655.8 billion in 2016 holiday sales during November and December, a 3.6 per cent increase over 2015. November sales were up 5 per cent year-over-year, and the Commerce Department is scheduled to release December numbers this weekend.
Cargo volume for 2016 is now estimated at 18.8 million TEU, up 2.9 per cent from 2015 rather than the 2 per cent previously expected. Total volume for 2015 was 18.2 million TEU, up 5.4 per cent from 2014.
January is forecast at 1.57 million TEU, up 5.7 per cent from January 2016; February at 1.52 million TEU, down 1.5 percent from last year; March at 1.41 million TEU, up 6.5 percent from last year; April at 1.55 million TEU, up 7.3 per cent, and May at 1.61 million TEU, down 0.5 per cent.
"Economic data is fickle by nature ?it surges and falls and often surprises us," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said, referring to sometimes-contradictory economic numbers seen over the past year. "There is both optimism and pessimism and pointers showing growth as well as decline.
The US ports in the report are Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.