World Shipping spirits hold up despite troubles: Moore Stephens survey
INTERNATIONAL accountancy firm and shipping industry consultant Moore
Stephens says the shipping sector confidence at year-end has picked up
despite fears of overtonnage and the eurozone crisis but it is still at
its lowest rating since the survey was launched in 2008. Tuesday, 27.Dec.2011, 22:42 (GMT+3)
INTERNATIONAL accountancy firm and shipping industry consultant Moore
Stephens says the shipping sector confidence at year-end has picked up
despite fears of overtonnage and the eurozone crisis but it is still at
its lowest rating since the survey was launched in 2008.
By end of third quarter average confidence came in at 5.4, up from
August against a scale where 1 is low and 10 is high. Those most
confident were managers remaining unchanged at 5.6 with owners
increasing from 5.1 to 5.3 and brokers from 5.1 to 5.2, charterers
dropped marginally from 5.0 to 4.9.
Geographically the region most reduced in confidence is Europe from a
high of 6.6 in 2008, which it retained until August 2010. North American
and Asia increased with confidence: Asia from 5.7 to 5.8 and North
America a bigger leap of faith at 5.8 from 5.1.
One respondent said the outcome of the European financial crisis "will
decide how things turn out for shipping in general and for shipowners in
particular.
Writing in the latest issue of Bottom Line, the firm's shipping
newsletter, Richard Greiner shipping partner at Moore Stephens' Shipping
Industry Group, said:
"It says a great deal for the resilience of the shipping industry that,
despite the problems facing the sector, and notwithstanding the acute
difficulties bedevilling the world economy, our survey showed a small
increase in confidence.
"Like a boxer who refuses to lie down, shipping is fighting to ride the
punches and to bounce back off the ropes. There was even an increased
expectation that respondents would be making a major investment over the
coming 12 months," and in the face of operating costs set to rise by
3.7 per cent into 2012.
"Overtonnaging is still the elephant in the room", he said and it will
remain so for some time unless sensible renegotiation and resourceful
financing can be used in the short term, said Mr Greiner.
Freight rates are expected to fall because decreased demand and over
supply of tonnage globally, according to the survey, the first since
February 2009 when those expecting decline in rates was higher than rate
increases. Respondents who thought rates would rise numbered 23 per
cent (28 per cent previously) and 31 per cent for rates dropping.