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Port Tracker: 2012 European imports to flatten after 3.9pc rise in 2011

Port of Hamburg

THE 2011 total import growth in Europe was forecast at 3.9 per cent with North European exports expected to grow five per cent and the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions 1.8 per cent, said the recent Global Port Tracker Report by Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.

Final 2011 figures were not available. European ports surveyed in this report include the six major container reports in North Europe: Le Havre, Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Rotterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven, and Hamburg.

For 2012, the report projected a zero growth in Europe and that European ports would experience month-to-month declines in the first half with and volumes expected to plummet despite expected increases for January and May.

It said each month's ups or downs will be in single digits. Though gains are expected in two of the next four quarters, only single-digit growth is expected.

Hackett Associates president Ben Hackett told US-based Logistics Management that the prospect of no growth in 2012 is not surprising.

"European governments have pushed so hard on austerity measures that in most countries it is raising unemployment and reducing GDP growth as a result," he said.

"Most GDPs went negative during the fourth quarter of 2011 if not all of them. The first quarter of 2012 is likely to be the same or even worse than the fourth quarter was."

Mr Hackett said the EU's sovereign debt crisis, especially in Greece, has "dried up the amount of credit available in North Europe very quickly."

He said banks in Europe simply avoid lending and transfer reserves away from the region, because "they don't want to lose 70 per cent of their loans to Greece and possibly to Portugal", which is part of the released terms for the debt restructuring scheme of Greece.

Since consumers in Europe are suffering from increasing unemployment, rising taxes, and tight credit, Mr Hackett believed these factors would lead to a standstill of trade growth.

"Because of this, there is still a lot of capacity available on the Asia-Europe trade lane, and the reduction in capacity has not been anywhere near what it has been on the transpacific," said Hackett.

"This will put pressure on freight rates. It is a case where capacity is not going down quickly enough, and demand is dropping more rapidly, which creates a situation where there really is overcapacity. Even if we see some growth in the second half of 2012, it is not going to be enough to show an annual growth rate."

The report indicated that export volume for full-year 2011 is forecast to be 9.1 per cent higher than in 2010 at 16.57 million TEU. The total volume handled, including empties, is estimated to grow 7.5 per cent to 40.05 million TEU, while the outgoing volume is expected to rise 7.1 per cent to 16.80 TEU.

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