SPOT rates from Asia to both Europe and the US will not collapse in the third quarter as they did last year, because strong demand and improving sentiment will hold them steady, according to a BIMCO analyst.
The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) is the world's largest shipowners associations, also representing managers, brokers and agents and 65 per cent of the world's tonnage.
The forecast comes despite the on-going addition of new ships and recent declines since the pricing gains on the Asia-Europe trade generated by lines from general rate increases (GRIs) on August 1.
"The peak season is upon us again and it is off to a good start on all the key high capacity/volume trading routes out of the Far East," said BIMCO analyst Peter Sand.
"Bimco expects the spot freight rates to resist last year's constant slide from early August to end-October on Far East to Europe," he said.
"The Far East routes to the US west coast and US east coast seem exposed to a gradual deterioration of freight rates as the peak season passes by and winter service programmes for the liner operators picks up."
Mr Sand argued demand was improving globally, with the winter weakness in the US and sluggish European markets being offset by strong demand on north-south trades in the Atlantic basin and improving conditions in the intra-Asia trades.
"Demand-side growth is outstripping supply-side growth now, which is something that improves the fundamental balance in the market," he said.
"This difference is one to two per cent - not a landslide change from one day to the next, but a most welcome move in the right direction."
OPINION
21 August 2014 - 21:11
Spot rates to escape post-peak collapse this year, says BIMC0 analyst
SPOT rates from Asia to both Europe and the US will not collapse in the third quarter as they did last year, because strong demand and improving sentiment will hold them steady, according to a BIMCO analyst.
OPINION
21 August 2014 - 21:11
Spot rates to escape post-peak collapse this year, says BIMC0 analyst
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